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Election Day Trades Blind as Apple and Palantir Slide, Oil Jumps

November 3, 2026 · Finance TL;DR Daily

Wall Street trades before the midterm results are known, Apple and Palantir fall after earnings with the Nasdaq-100 in correction, and Brent rebounds above $106 on a reported US strike on Iran. Australia's central bank also lifts rates to the highest since 2008.

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Transcript

Alex: Welcome to Finance TL;DR Daily, the podcast where we break down the biggest stories in finance. It's Tuesday, November third, and voters are deciding control of Congress while Wall Street trades without knowing the result.

Riley: Here's what's moving today: Election Day and a market trading blind, Apple and Palantir sliding after earnings, oil bouncing back above a hundred and six dollars, and Australia's central bank taking rates to an eighteen-year high.

Alex: At Monday's close, the S&P 500 slipped about half a percent and the Nasdaq fell about one point one percent, while the Dow rose roughly four tenths of a percent.

Riley: The ten-year Treasury yield eased to 4.89 percent, and WTI crude settled near ninety-six dollars a barrel. Now, the vote.

Alex: If you own stocks, today is a blindfold session. Results mostly arrive after the 4 p.m. Eastern close, so the market trades before anyone knows who won. Voters are choosing all 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats, including two special elections.

Riley: And yet the market clearly has a view. Prediction markets lean heavily Democratic.

Alex: One report put Polymarket odds at 95 percent for a Democratic House and 77 percent for the Senate. And the Kobeissi Letter argues investors are pricing in two years of political gridlock.

Riley: Gridlock isn't a dirty word on Wall Street. Nothing passes, nothing surprises.

Alex: Unless the surprise is the margin. CNBC and TheStreet both flag a stronger-than-expected Democratic showing as a possible jolt.

Riley: But a House win is nearly priced in. The Senate, at 77 percent, is the less settled bit.

Alex: Right, and a Democratic Senate would constrain Trump's economic and energy agenda far more. He's said that if Republicans lost the House he'd become "Mr. Veto." He also said he'd eventually make deals.

Riley: Eventually. That's doing a lot of work in that sentence.

Alex: Eventually is a very market-moving word.

Riley: What do you make of the S&P's mood going in? It's still up nearly eleven percent this year, though it's been soft over the past month.

Alex: I read that as nerves, not panic. The index fell on Monday, but nobody's dumping stocks ahead of a result that's largely expected.

Riley: Fair. And inflation, growth and earnings will probably drive prices more than who holds which chamber.

Alex: So the thing to remember: the vote may decide the headlines tonight, but the economy still sets the direction for your portfolio.

Riley: Speaking of earnings, if you hold tech, directly or through an index fund, Monday night's reports matter. Apple and Palantir both fell premarket, and Shopify slid too.

Alex: Apple actually beat on sales, though.

Riley: It did. Revenue of $114.48 billion against $113.39 billion expected. The trouble is the margin guide. Apple sees gross margin of 45 to 46 percent for the December quarter, short of the 46.3 percent analysts wanted.

Alex: Gross margin being the profit left after making the product.

Riley: Precisely. And CEO John Ternus was blunt about why. He said, "What we're seeing with memory pricing right now is unprecedented."

Alex: Unprecedented. CEOs usually reach for "dynamic."

Riley: Analysts also point to the cost of rolling out Siri AI. Apple was about four percent lower premarket.

Alex: Palantir's the odd one. Revenue nearly doubled and passed $2 billion for the first time.

Riley: But growth in new US commercial contract value slowed, and the shares fell between 6.5 and 8 percent premarket.

Alex: So you can nearly double your revenue and still get sold.

Riley: When expectations are that high, doubling is just the entry fee.

Alex: And all this lands on a Nasdaq-100 that's already hurting.

Riley: It closed Monday at 27,989.82, which is 10.4 percent below its record close of 31,224.47 on October sixth. That's its third correction of 2026. Chip stocks drove it, with the Philadelphia semiconductor index down 3.4 percent.

Alex: Yet the same memory prices squeezing Apple are lifting memory-chip makers.

Riley: That's the bit that matters. The Dow rose and the equal-weight S&P gained 0.73 percent, so investors look to be sorting winners from losers rather than leaving tech wholesale.

Alex: A ten percent drop feels like leaving to me.

Riley: Feels, perhaps. The broader market says otherwise. The thing to remember is that higher memory costs are a cost for device makers and a windfall for chip producers.

Alex: Now to oil, because if you drive, heat a home or watch inflation, crude's mood swings reach you. Brent is up about 1.75 percent to $106.60 a barrel, after reports that US forces struck Iran's Qeshm Island late Monday.

Riley: Officials told the Wall Street Journal it's part of a run of limited US attacks in recent weeks, and some called them defensive, aimed at stopping Iranian attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz.

Alex: The rebound follows Monday's plunge. Brent settled down $8.66, or 7.63 percent, at $104.77, after talks between Iranian and Qatari officials raised hopes of ending the war.

Riley: Seven percent down on a conversation.

Alex: And back up on a strike report.

Riley: Iran also pushed back. A senior official told Reuters the two sides are far from a deal, and Tehran won't accept Washington's "excessive demands."

Alex: Analyst Tim Waterer of KCM Trade put it neatly: "The report added a degree of risk premium back into the oil price."

Riley: Risk premium, meaning the extra price traders add for danger. That's what whipsaw looks like.

Alex: What do you make of the election angle? Brent ended October at a six-month high on worries the conflict could escalate after the vote.

Riley: I think the market treats the election as a hinge. Traders fear renewed strikes once it's over, so any headline now gets read through that lens. Which is why a rumour can move crude several percent.

Alex: And a falling oil price would help inflation. A rising one does the opposite.

Riley: Hardly a coincidence that it's the number everyone's watching.

Alex: So the takeaway: oil is trading on headlines, and until there's a real deal or a real escalation, expect big swings in both directions.

Riley: Last stop is Australia, which offers a look at what inflation pressure does to a central bank. The Reserve Bank raised its cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.85 percent, the highest since November 2008.

Alex: That's the financial crisis.

Riley: Rates are back at those levels. It was a split 6-3 vote and the fifth increase of 2026. Governor Michele Bullock said, "Inflation is too high, and our forecasts suggest it will stay higher for longer."

Alex: And the numbers back her up?

Riley: Headline inflation rose to 4.3 percent in September from 4 percent, and the preferred trimmed-mean measure, which strips out wild swings, went from 3.5 to 3.6 percent. The board sees inflation elevated through much of 2027.

Alex: Futures were pricing above 80 percent for a hike, so it was hardly a shock.

Riley: Expected, yes. I'd say the message is the story, not the move. Higher for longer.

Alex: Then look at the housing market. Prices fell 1.2 percent in October, the seventh straight monthly decline.

Riley: And the ABC reports the economy is slowing and unemployment has risen. So the bank is hiking into a weakening economy.

Alex: Tough spot. Inflation says tighten, growth says ease.

Riley: Which keeps pressure on bond yields, currencies and mortgage-sensitive assets. The thing to remember: a central bank is still choosing inflation over a slowing housing market. Ballots, bombs and balance sheets set the mood today.

Alex: Politics may write the headlines, but inflation and rates still set the terms. This has been Finance TL;DR Daily. If it was useful, follow the show wherever you're listening. We'll see you tomorrow.

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