Oil Slips Under $100 on Iran Talks as Bank of England Hike Looms

Oil retreats on U.S.-Iran diplomacy and futures bounce after the Nasdaq's rough month. The Bank of England is expected to raise rates Thursday, and SpaceX is reportedly in talks over Boost Mobile.

Transcript

Alex: Welcome to Finance TL;DR Daily, the podcast where we break down the biggest stories in finance. It's Monday, November second. Oil has slipped back under a hundred dollars on Iran diplomacy, and Wall Street futures are trying to claw back last week's losses.

Riley: Here's what's moving today: oil's dip on U.S.-Iran diplomacy, a Bank of England decision this week that's expected to bring a rate rise, and reports that SpaceX is eyeing Boost Mobile.

Alex: First, the last closes we have. The S&P 500 finished Wednesday at about 7,744, up roughly a quarter of a percent. The Nasdaq Composite fell about 1.4% on Thursday, and the Dow dropped about 1.1% on Friday to 51,770.

Riley: The ten-year Treasury yield, the benchmark government borrowing rate, was 4.98% on Thursday, down seven basis points on the day.

Alex: Oil first, because it touches your gas bill, your groceries, and the rate path your mortgage hangs on. On Monday, December West Texas Intermediate fell about 4.4% to $99.50 a barrel in early trading, on reports of U.S.-Iran diplomacy.

Riley: Mind you, "below a hundred" is doing rather a lot of work there. Brent, the international benchmark, is still above $109.

Alex: Fair point. Brent fell $4.20, about 3.7%, to $109.23. Still elevated. The trigger was a report that Trump told Netanyahu he'd prefer to give diplomacy more time, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the president would rather handle it peacefully.

Riley: And Tehran's reply was hardly an olive branch. Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said Iran was prepared for "both defence and diplomacy."

Alex: Right, and the Wall Street Journal and New York Times both report the U.S. is preparing for possible renewed military action after tomorrow's midterm elections.

Riley: So the calm may simply be a pause until the ballots are counted.

Alex: That's the worry. Rabobank's Florence Schmit called this "a temporary pullback," and analysts warn an escalation after the midterms could push Brent toward $120.

Riley: What are stocks making of it?

Alex: Futures are recovering. S&P futures are up about 0.3% and Nasdaq futures about 0.6%, after a session where the Nasdaq 100 tumbled 3.5%, its worst day since June. That capped a month in which it lost 6.7%.

Riley: A 0.6% bounce against a 6.7% monthly loss. That's a nudge, not a recovery.

Alex: Agreed, it's a bounce. Where it bites is rates. Traders on Kalshi put the odds that the Fed funds rate is above 4% after the December 9th meeting at 74%.

Riley: Which is why the durability matters. If crude drifts back up, that inflation worry comes straight back.

Alex: And these are early-session quotes, so levels shift by the hour. The thing to remember: oil's drop is a diplomatic pause, not a resolution, and the midterms are the next test.

Riley: Staying with rates, but across the Atlantic. If you hold a UK mortgage, Thursday matters. The Bank of England announces its decision at noon London time on November fifth, alongside a new Monetary Policy Report.

Alex: And what's the expectation?

Riley: A quarter-point rise. Bank Rate is 3.75%, where it's been held since September. A Reuters poll of 63 economists, taken October twelfth to fourteenth, found 54 expecting a move to 4%.

Alex: That's a lot of economists agreeing on something.

Riley: Rare, isn't it? A prediction-market snapshot from October nineteenth priced a quarter-point rise at 93.5%, though that's about three weeks old now.

Alex: Why are they so sure?

Riley: Inflation. UK CPI rose to 3.5% in the year to September, from 3.1% in August, and services inflation, which tracks wages, rose to 3.7%. In September, the committee voted six to three to hold, and those three wanted a hike to 4%.

Alex: So a third of the committee is already there.

Riley: Precisely. They need only persuade one more. And a rise lifts costs for mortgage and tracker holders, and could reprice sterling and gilts, which are UK government bonds.

Alex: What about Haleon? It was in the headlines for a sharp share drop.

Riley: That was October twenty-ninth, not today. The consumer health group cut its 2026 organic revenue growth forecast to about 2.5%, below its earlier range of 3% to 5%. Shares fell roughly 12.5% to 15% at one point. CEO Brian McNamara said, "We are clear on where we need to improve."

Alex: Does that connect to rate expectations?

Riley: I couldn't find a link, so I'd treat that as a separate story. The Budget on October twenty-eighth is the other thing weighing on gilt yields.

Alex: I'd argue the Haleon news is a useful reminder, though. Companies feel the squeeze while central banks fight inflation.

Riley: Perhaps, but that's your optimism reading in a connection the data doesn't make.

Alex: Ha. Fair enough. What's the takeaway?

Riley: The hike looks largely priced in, so the clues on what comes after it will matter more than the decision itself.

Alex: Now to something that could reshape your phone bill. The Washington Post reports that SpaceX has held talks with EchoStar about buying Boost Mobile outright, or using the network Boost leases.

Riley: Based on unnamed sources, and nothing's confirmed.

Alex: Right. The talks are preliminary. No terms, valuation, or timetable were disclosed, and neither company has confirmed a deal will proceed. But EchoStar shares were up about 4% in pre-market trading.

Riley: How big is Boost, really?

Alex: Modest. EchoStar reported 7.375 million wireless subscribers across Boost Mobile and Gen Mobile as of June thirtieth. The prize is the market, which MoffettNathanson values at $235 billion in the U.S.

Riley: Seven million customers in a $235 billion market. SpaceX would be buying a foothold, not a throne.

Alex: A foothold with a ready customer base, though. And SpaceX has said it wants this. CFO Bret Johnsen said on the recent earnings call the aim is to "become a major mobile carrier" in the United States.

Riley: Here's the catch. Boost's network is leased from AT&T and T-Mobile, and a lease typically can't pass to a new owner without the carrier's consent.

Alex: So the two biggest rivals could end up as gatekeepers.

Riley: Rather awkward, yes. They'd be deciding whether a new competitor gets in.

Alex: There's also the spectrum, the airwaves that carry signals. SpaceX agreed to acquire Grain Management's nationwide 800 megahertz portfolio, which the Wall Street Journal reported was worth about $8 billion.

Riley: So the ambition is well funded. What's your read on the Boost angle?

Alex: Speed. Buying customers is a shortcut compared with building a subscriber base from nothing. But nothing's agreed, so it's a story to watch rather than bank on.

Riley: And if the consent question stalls it, that shortcut gets longer.

Alex: The takeaway: SpaceX clearly wants to be a phone carrier, but a deal hinges on talks that are early and on landlords who are also rivals.

Riley: A day of pauses, then: oil waiting on diplomacy, the Bank of England waiting on Thursday, and SpaceX waiting on consent.

Alex: And each of them is a headline away from changing. This has been Finance TL;DR Daily. If it was useful, follow the show wherever you're listening. We'll see you tomorrow.

In this episode

• Oil falls below $100 on U.S.-Iran diplomacy, lifting U.S. stock futures as they recover from the AI-led selloff — source
• Bank of England set to raise interest rates as its decision comes into focus — source
• SpaceX reportedly in talks to acquire Boost Mobile as it builds out a U.S. wireless business — source

Educational content only — not financial advice.